The Uncertainty of "Likely" by Rev. Dr. Marcus Leathers
/As a child, when I heard the word, “likely” mentioned by someone, especially one of my parents, I knew that the situation was possibly not going to end as I had hoped. For instance, a question about going for ice cream could be answered with, “We likely will not have enough time.”, an inquiry about adding another NFL team to use for my electronic football game may be answered with, “We likely will not have the money.”, or asking a teacher if I passed a test was sometimes answered with, “You likely didn’t study enough.” Many of you may have your own stories about the impact that “likely” had on your lives. For a time, I couldn’t quite put my finger on the reason for my uneasiness with that word but over time, I realized the reason was that most often, I couldn’t trust “likely.” Haven’t you had someone say, “More than likely, that’s the worst that could happen” but then it turned out there was something much worse! In my youth, the wise elders would question anyone who took comfort in the word, “likely.” They were certain that its uncertainly was worse than a 50/50 chance in gambling.
After reading journalist Salvador Rizzo’s recent Washington Post alert titled, “Judge Blocks Mass Firings (ruling them likely to be illegal)”, I was reminded of the question my elders often asked whenever someone spoke conditionally about something being “likely.” In his alert that I referenced earlier, Rizzo writes, A federal judge in San Francisco on Thursday found that the mass firings of probationary employees were likely unlawful, granting temporary relief to a coalition of labor unions and organizations that has sued to stop the Trump administration’s massive dismantling of the federal workforce. Having spoken directly with workers experiencing the impact of such violent policies, likely to be illegal may be words meant to assuage the deep anxieties amid the chaos but perhaps little else.
Being a pastor and not a lawyer, I wonder if anyone else is troubled by the not-so-subtle infusion of the word likely into references, comments, and communications about how the legal system is being employed to render justice for thousands of federal employees, USAID workers, as well as diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility hires? Is it likely that the District of Columbia, the Capital Area as well as other places in this country will be forced to relinquish their constitutional rights to employ and dismiss federal workers. Due to the action of this current Presidential administration, the path forward is uncertain and democracy is dangling dangerously over a precipice.
Rizzo suggests that likely could mean that a court’s ruling against the mass firings at the direction of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by billionaire Elon Musk could be delayed by litigations to impose the strategies of Project 2025–a conservative movement designed within the framework of Executive Orders to dismantle government agencies. While we are waiting for a decision, a slew of layoffs, furloughs, firings, cancellations, and holds continue to inflict severe suffering upon individuals, families, communities, and organizations in America and throughout the World. Perhaps these mass firings are a major reason for the 25% increase for unemployment filings in the District of Columbia for the week ending February 22, 2025.
In one court filing, attorneys for unions representing agencies such as the Department of Defense, the Park Service, the Bureau of Land Management, the National Science Foundation and others said, OPM, the federal agency charged with implementing this nation’s employment laws, in one fell swoop has perpetrated one of the most massive employment frauds in the history of this country, telling tens of thousands of workers that they are being fired for performance reasons, when they most certainly were not…
In my experience, words such as “likely” only bring a small measure of comfort but “likely” can’t fill an empty stomach, shelter a cold body, or prevent illnesses from getting worse. Visioning a plan, communicating that plan, and then translating that plan to action is what we are called to do in times such as this. The theme introduced at the Christian Church Capital Area’s 2024 Regional Assembly was “For Times Such as These” which referred to the Jewish leader Mordecai’s message to his niece and queen in the Book of Esther, whose visionary leadership saved her people. As the Jewish people in the Persian Empire faced a grave threat from Haman, an officer of King Ahasuerus, whose reign corresponded to the reign of Xerxes I, 486—465 BCE, Mordecai provided words of hope to Esther regarding God’s divine providence. His message was not filled with uncertainty that could have created fear or a sense of uneasiness for Esther. Mordecai’s language, his message and his direction presented with certainty inspired Esther to act. Esther’s deliberateness would not only free the Jewish people from Haman’s treachery but result in consequences for Haman’s abuse of power and inhumanity exacted as violent policy. Esther 3:7-11 reminds us that guns, tanks, bombs, and chemicals are not the only weapons of war. The pen is a mighty sword that can be wielded to craft unethical legislation that undermines American democracy and robs us of the means to provide for ourselves the basic necessities—shelter, clean water, food, clothing, healthcare, transportation, education, the materials and resources to lend to help our neighbors.
Esther was receptive to Mordecai’s words and she responded with leadership that exemplified wisdom and strength for such a time! Through Esther’s decisive, determined, and devoted actions, God used Esther to free God’s people from Haman’s death blows instituted as executive orders. The young Jewish girl who had become queen embraced her identity and her faith in God’s inherent promises to face a monumental crisis (opportunity) presented to her.
For me, the answer to my elder’s question, “What is ‘likely’ certain to be?” has remained the same. The only certainty of “likely” is its uncertainty. What are the chances that probationary federal employees (those hired for two years or less) will regain their positions? What is the possibility that DEIA hires will return to their jobs? I anticipate that most of these people will not be offered a chance to return to their positions and, in understanding that this will likely be the case, the Church must discern what actions it can take to support individuals and organizations in the communities that it has been called to serve.
A lesson from the holy scriptures’ states, All you need to say is simply ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ anything beyond this comes from the evil one. Matthew 5:37, NRSV
As suffering, trauma, and devastating losses continue to mount within the communities of the Capital Area Region, God’s people need our presence as Christ’s disciples to offer a clear ‘yes’ or ‘no.’ “Yes”, as the Church, we are going to show up, step up, and then step into the places where we are needed. Here are a few areas in which the General Ministries, Regional Ministries, and local ministries of the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) are showing up during this difficult time in our country, our regions, and our communities:
· ·A word from our General Minister and President, Reverend Terri Hord Owens has been ‘yes.’ Our denomination, the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) has “joined a multifaith coalition and the Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection (ICAP) in opposition to the rescission of the sensitive locations policy, which is a direct violation of the First Amendment and the Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA). This decision directly interferes with our ability to fulfill our religious mandate and serve all of our congregants equally and with the dignity they deserve.”
The Commission for Congregational Life of the Christian Church Capital Area meets through Zoom at 10:00am the second Saturday of every month. This month, its agenda will give special attention to its ability to be of service to Disciples of Christ congregations in the CCCA and the communities they serve.
North Chevy Chase Christian Church has established a Church World Service Staff Fundraiser! North Chevy Chase Christian Church has worked closely with the Church World Services (CWS) office in Washington, D.C. and their refugee resettlement program for many years. Due to the current Administration's suspension of the U.S. Refugee Admissions program, the entire staff of the CWS D.C. office has been furloughed. This means staff, case workers, and social workers are suddenly without a paycheck. You can visit the website for North Chevy Chase CC or the CCCA website to give to this fund online.
On Ash Wednesday, March 5, 2025, Disciples of Christ clergy, Reverend Dr. William Barber II and Reverend Dr. Alvin Jackson through Repairers of the Breach led an ecumenical National Call for Repentance and Truth-Telling (held at the Martin Luther King, Jr. monument and at 11:00am at Saint Mark’s Episcopal Church, 301 A Street SE, Washington, DC 20003. This event had a large turnout and will lead to further mobilization efforts in the CCCA!
Beginning Wednesday, March 19, 2025, I would like to host all of our Disciples' clergy who can attend Clergy Fellowship. The gathering will occur each Wednesday by Zoom from 11:30am -- 1:00pm. The intent for offering this gathering during the usual lunchtime is to provide a window for all clergy who may want to participate an opportunity that can fit within the workday. A registration for this gathering will be provided. I will look forward to the opportunity for discussions among the clergy who are sharing ministry in the Capital Area. PLEASE USE THE FORM BELOW TO REGISTER YOUR ATTENDANCE AND TO RECIEVE THE ZOOM LINK!
We are all called to do our part for times such as these. With your support, ideas, and actions, we can do more. How will you respond?
Blessings,
Marcus
